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Veepstakes
Well, that's why I'm not a political analyst, I guess. Obama 57/41 in Montana, Clinton 55/45 in SoDak. Eh, close. Still more right than Mark Penn.
Guessing Hillary gets offered Veep and turns it down. I don't think Obama has any other choice -- given the nature of the finish, her pull in Florida in the northeast, and the very fact that she seems unwilling to give up (I keep hear her quoting Adam Savage: "I reject your reality and substitute my own!"), you gotta give her the opportunity to spurn. And spurn she will -- I don't think she wants to spend four more years in Washington in a position of subservience. So I anticipate her being rewarded, at some juncture -- probably not the cabinet, more likely SCOTUS -- but not as VP.
So that leaves the usual cattle call of senators and governors from swing states. I take Kathleen Sebelius off the list automatically -- Kansas isn't a swing state (I don't think you deliver Kansas no matter who you pick, and even so, it's just six electoral votes anyway), and I hate to think what Hillary's reaction would be if another woman were chosen. Evan Bayh and Jim Webb get mentioned a lot, and they've both got intangibles as well as the very tangible of possibly delivering Ohio, which is both substantial and teetering between red and blue. My personal favorite pick would be Wesley Clark, not only to soothe internal divisions as a longtime Clintonite, but also because of his distinguished military service, which you can bet will be a Republican drumbeat come the fall.
Who does McCain pick? I don't think he needs to placate those Republicans who blustered they'd vote for anyone except McCain -- that seems so long ago, doesn't it? Mike Huckabee seems to take him farther away from swing voters. Mitt Romney seems to be a more solid choice, he's certainly more at ease in front of a camera than McCain (as the lime green disaster proved last night). Chuck Hagel would be a good pick, but I don't think he'd do it. Lieberman is a long shot, but he'd help with the centrist/maverick perception McCain is after. Dunno. I'm pretty sure it's going to be someone we've seen in prominence recently and not a Dan-Quayle-obscurity-level pick. Curious.
Either way, let the monotony of the primaries be replaced with the mindless drone that lasts until November. Though I think -- unlike 2000 and 2004 -- this race will be over long before then.
Guessing Hillary gets offered Veep and turns it down. I don't think Obama has any other choice -- given the nature of the finish, her pull in Florida in the northeast, and the very fact that she seems unwilling to give up (I keep hear her quoting Adam Savage: "I reject your reality and substitute my own!"), you gotta give her the opportunity to spurn. And spurn she will -- I don't think she wants to spend four more years in Washington in a position of subservience. So I anticipate her being rewarded, at some juncture -- probably not the cabinet, more likely SCOTUS -- but not as VP.
So that leaves the usual cattle call of senators and governors from swing states. I take Kathleen Sebelius off the list automatically -- Kansas isn't a swing state (I don't think you deliver Kansas no matter who you pick, and even so, it's just six electoral votes anyway), and I hate to think what Hillary's reaction would be if another woman were chosen. Evan Bayh and Jim Webb get mentioned a lot, and they've both got intangibles as well as the very tangible of possibly delivering Ohio, which is both substantial and teetering between red and blue. My personal favorite pick would be Wesley Clark, not only to soothe internal divisions as a longtime Clintonite, but also because of his distinguished military service, which you can bet will be a Republican drumbeat come the fall.
Who does McCain pick? I don't think he needs to placate those Republicans who blustered they'd vote for anyone except McCain -- that seems so long ago, doesn't it? Mike Huckabee seems to take him farther away from swing voters. Mitt Romney seems to be a more solid choice, he's certainly more at ease in front of a camera than McCain (as the lime green disaster proved last night). Chuck Hagel would be a good pick, but I don't think he'd do it. Lieberman is a long shot, but he'd help with the centrist/maverick perception McCain is after. Dunno. I'm pretty sure it's going to be someone we've seen in prominence recently and not a Dan-Quayle-obscurity-level pick. Curious.
Either way, let the monotony of the primaries be replaced with the mindless drone that lasts until November. Though I think -- unlike 2000 and 2004 -- this race will be over long before then.
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Vince. Foster.
Personally, I like Sebelius as Veep. She gave the rebuttal to the SotU speech (much like Obama's keynote at the DNC), she's done a pretty good job as governor, and she's done it without throwing hissy-fits to the press. Plus, she's squeeky-clean as politicians go. Wesley Clark would be a smart choice but not one that I'd like, for the same reason that you can forget about Edwards: they're simply incompatible with Obama's image of Change(tm).
For the Republicans, man, I don't know anything that can save McCain. Romney is the easy choice, since he's younger and can be trusted not to pull a Dan Quayle. If I were playing Fantasy Politics here, though, I think I'd go the other way with Ron Paul. You pick up an extremely zealous (if largely ineffective) base, and you can honestly go toe-to-toe with Obama in the Change(R) category by letting Ron's leash out a little.
What the DNC needs to figure out, and figure out now, is that Hillary Clinton is about as likeable as a Chlymidia-infested Roger Clemens-skunk love child with leprosy. She's a cancer to the Democrat Party and the very concept of representative government.
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