Okay, I give up, I believe in the bat
After thumbing through some more reviews (especially some of the expectations and assumptions of the negatives) and spoilers, I'm no longer considering The Dark Knight an outside possibility for Oscars.
No, I don't think that possibility is outside anymore. I think that Ledger's work will be good enough to insure him the nomination, and the combination of that work and the sentimentality of the Academy will win it for him. Though I'm still hearing good stuff about Revolutionary Road and it has the sheen of your typical late-season Oscar runner, I don't see Ledger not winning. And if the film holds together half as well as the (admittedly bordering-on-hyperbole) reviews indicated, don't see any reason this film stops at one win.
No, I don't think that possibility is outside anymore. I think that Ledger's work will be good enough to insure him the nomination, and the combination of that work and the sentimentality of the Academy will win it for him. Though I'm still hearing good stuff about Revolutionary Road and it has the sheen of your typical late-season Oscar runner, I don't see Ledger not winning. And if the film holds together half as well as the (admittedly bordering-on-hyperbole) reviews indicated, don't see any reason this film stops at one win.